David Luciani

"If Sleepers Existed" - Part 1
January 28, 2010

For those new to this annually published series, the title tells the story.  One of the most misused terms in fantasy baseball is the term "sleeper" at least as it is currently applied and has been in recent years.  If you pick up any of the pre-season magazines or search the Internet for sites which publish fantasy information, you will often see a list of so-called sleepers and then a series of names that read much like every other source's sleeper list.  That's because in this era, there arguably isn't such a thing as a sleeper.  In short, can we really call a player a "sleeper" if he appears on ten pre-season sleeper lists?  If not, then I prefer to entitle my own annual contribution to this effort as the "if sleepers existed" list.  In other words, if there really was such a thing as a sleeper in the information era, here's who I think might be deserving of being on that list.

One other important note about so-called sleepers is that they earn that title for a reason.  That is, they are not usually safe choices.  They may be injury risks or have a career that screams inconsistency or have a lack of job security and so on.  So, as we prepare to present some names to you, I can't emphasize enough that many of these players will not end up having the potentially valuable seasons of which they are deemed capable.  Over the years, I have found that about half of the names we have listed here seem to work out and half don't.  I tell you this up front because I don't want to exaggerate the list's value.  I can't tell you twenty names who will have good seasons but I can give you some options and then tell you that about half of the names who appear here, historically, prove to have been good value picks when we look back at the list at the end of the season.  If that success rate isn't as good as you would like or need, then I'm sure there are other sources out there who will claim to do better.

So, let's get into part one.  In this first part, we'll present ten hitters you need to know about and then next week, at this time, we'll give you ten pitchers.  In line with our typical success rate, about four out of ten of last year's hitters went on to have the kind of seasons we were hoping for (Ryan Zimmerman, Nelson Cruz, Troy Tulowitzki and Adam Jones) and five of ten pitchers did (Heath Bell, Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Marmol and Frank Francisco).  New readers will notice that I tend to express things in terms of ranges of performance (e.g. "10-15 home runs") and I do this intentionally.  While our actual published forecasts offer the precision that goes to even a full decimal place, forecasting in the real world really is about something more general and I feel such ranges better express the type of player we're talking about.  Here's hoping you are lucky enough to end up with the winners from this year's list. - DL

Jay Bruce, of, Cincinnati: There will never be a better chance to pick up Bruce than right now as his injury-shortened 2009 campaign mixed with his incredibly disappointing batting average (.223) are going to bring his cost way down.  He doesn't even turn twenty-three until this April and while he has shown problems handling lefty pitching, he's still learning.  He already proved at the end of last season that he was fully recovered from the wrist injury and if he can stay healthy and in the lineup for the whole year, we're projecting a major breakout improvement here as a result of experience.  The projected average (.289) is a bit riskier but the power, currently 34 home runs and 97 RBI forecasted, are a little safer.  Oh, and he does have the ability to steal 5-10 bases too.

Troy Glaus, Atlanta: Fantasy leagues are going to vary on where he qualifies as he hardly played last year but when he did, it was at third base or as a pinch hitter (8 games at third, 8 games as a pinch hitter and 2 games at first base). He suffered through a miserable injury-shortened year in 2009 and when he did return, hit only .172 in 29 at bats with no home runs.  Working in Glaus' favor is that he's reportedly healthy and has been signed to be a regular in the lineup, now at first base.  Playing there should help him to stay healthy and while we're not forecasting a return to the 150+ game territory he was used to, even if he lasts around 130 games, that should be good for about 15 home runs and 50+ RBI with an average a little below his career .255 mark.  We highlight Glaus more for the potential beyond that reflected by the injury risk.  In other words, if he could somehow exceed our modest expectations and play as much as he used to play, he still has a 20-25 home run season left in him and remember, he's still only thirty three years old.

Josh Hamilton, of, Texas: Hamilton was on this list two years ago just before he had that breakthrough season and now, after missing about half of the 2009 season, he's earned his place back into the ranks of the sleepers.  Sure, everyone knows about his ability but the drop in batting average and that he's still only played one full healthy season in the majors may scare some off.  Hamilton falls into a category we mention occasionally and that is the "it's okay he may have overachieved one year" slot.  Suppose his doubters are correct that 2008 was a bit of a fluke on the high side of his ability.  It doesn't matter.  If he can stay even reasonably healthy over a full year (think 140-145 games), he's still capable of hitting .280 with 20-25 home runs and 80 RBI and a bonus of around 10 stolen bases.  He doesn't have to perform as he did two years ago to experience a big bounce back in value.

Michael Brantley, of, Cleveland: Some are tough on his upside because he's never shown any real extra base potential in the minors but it's not the kind of player he is.  For the immediate future and not even considering what he might improve to by the time he reaches his prime, he looks to us be to a player poised for a full season's worth of playing time with immediate 30 stolen base potential and 70-75 run scoring ability.  The one and only area we don't expect to hold up, at least not for 2010, is that last year's .313 average in 112 big league at bats is not in line with the .267 mark he posted in more than 450 at bats at Triple-A Columbus.  Still, if he hits .260, as we're forecasting, and steals 30 bases, he'll have instant value for his speed and run scoring contribution.

Austin Jackson, of, Detroit: The key piece in the deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, Jackson is widely expected to take over in center field.  Jackson has never appeared in the majors so like all such players, he has to not completely fall on his face in spring training if he's to hang on to the job he's expected to have.  He also has to hold off Casper Wells, which we expect he can.  Jackson projects as an immediate .265-.270 type who won't amaze in either the power or speed column in his first year but should steal close to 15 bases and hit close to 10 home runs.  In other words, he's not forecasted to be a super power-speed combo in year one but that he is forecasted to hold his own and still contribute before eventually developing into a much more valuable player makes him one worth grabbing now if you can.

Jason Heyward, of, Atlanta: Unlike the others on this list, Heyward is not a clear front-runner to start the season in a starting lineup, even though the Braves appear open to him winning a job during the spring. Our currently listed projection for only 90 games reflects the uncertainty about him earning that spot.  If he does do that and holds on to it during the season, he's capable of hitting in the .280s right now with near-20 home run power and 10-15 stolen base ability.  Of course, he has to have a good spring  He started last season as our #5 ranked hitting prospect and moved up to be our #1 by the end of the season.  Unfortunately, if your league has a prospect/reserve list, he's almost certainly already taken.

Cameron Maybin, of, Florida: We remain concerned about his shoulder as even into late January, he still wasn't completely healed from surgery he underwent in November.  In the plus column here is that a healthy Maybin does look like the regular center fielder.  Give him over 500 at bats, as we were forecasting in our latest set, and he could hit close to .270 with 10-15 home runs and 10-15 steals.

Alex Gordon, 3b, Kansas City: When everyone else had him as the top ranked prospect, we warned about the danger that he did not project out as a good hitter for average.  Now, the crowd has thinned a little and Gordon is actually the kind of player you can acquire.  He turns twenty-six this February and is coming off a terribly disappointing year that saw him hardly play and play poorly when he did (.232 average, 6 HR in 164 AB).  So, now's the time to go out and get him.  The Royals aren't about to give up on their once clear top prospect and we do believe that while many overestimated his eventual ceiling, he is still improving.  We're forecasting a career-best .268 average this year and given about a full year's worth of staying in the lineup, we believe he can at least return to the power and speed we already saw in 2007-08 and that would mean 15+ home runs and 10+ steals.  Remember, he hasn't hit his prime yet and a breakthrough can and should occur one of these years.

Alcides Escobar, ss, Milwaukee: For a guy who only turned twenty-three in December, he's been around a long time in the minors, now with six years of pro experience.  He's about to get a chance to play most of the time and his minor league track record, especially the recent portion of it, promises a player capable of stealing 25+ bases if he plays regularly.  We don't believe in the implied .304 batting average of last year, at least not yet, this because he hit "only" .298 at Triple-A Nashville in more than 400 at bats.  The greatest challenge to his playing time potential is that if we're right about his batting average coming down quite a bit, his OBP may be too low to keep him in the lineup for the long run.  Still, if you're after speed and need to take a risk, he's worth a roll of the dice.

Carlos Gomez, of, Milwaukee: At only twenty-four, he's only a year removed from a 33 steal season and last year's .229 disappointment is likely going to have many fantasy GMs running for other options.  The departure of Mike Cameron opened up a spot in the outfield for which Gomez is at least a contender and assuming he can show in the spring that he really is a better player than he appeared to be last year, something we believe he can do, he's capable of securing a regular job and stealing 25-30 bases.  The greatest obstacle to his success is that he doesn't project as someone who will hit for average and his career .246 average to date in just over 1,000 big league at bats may limit his value, even if he holds on to a job.  If you can tolerate low or mediocre average players who steal plenty of bases, he may be your guy.

By the way, we nearly broke our self-imposed rule of listing ten hitters and ten pitchers as Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks was the final cut from this year's list, this as we rounded out this year's list with two of his teammates.  We don't want to get to the point that our sleepers list grows to the point of highlighting every hitter and pitcher likely to do better than they did last year (it would then extend into the hundreds) but Weeks is an honorable mention we will flag as one rare "extra" name worthy of your attention.  A healthy Weeks who sets a career-high in playing time of about 140 games would be capable of hitting around .260 with 15-20 home runs and 15-20 steals.  It wasn't that long ago that he was a highly-coveted mid-season call-up and inconsistency and a failure to last a complete season in the majors have held him back.  We've dropped this year's forecast in the "very risky" column and to be more specific, Weeks is among the top ten riskiest projections in our entire current forecast set.

For readers on our free mailing list, part two is to be published on February 5 (and for all others, part two to be posted at the site during the week of February 8-12)